Nature-based Solutions to climate change mitigation in Pearl River Delta: a cost-effectiveness analysis
Mr HAN Wenyi PhD Student, Department of Geography, HKU
Limiting global warming below the 2℃ threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement would require both emission reduction and carbon sequestration. Following the previous goal that the carbon emissions will peak by 2030, China put forward a more ambitious target to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. This will exert great pressure and unintended impacts on the society and the economy. Moreover, the current solutions to climate change mitigation and estimated potential of greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions mainly focus on the conventional pathways, i.e. energy evolution, industry transition and technology innovation, while the uncertainty is obvious, and the abatement cost is large. Thus, it is essential to utilize additional cost-effective approaches to ensure successful control of GHG emissions. Nature based solutions (NbS), which not only use the power of nature itself but also facilitate a better stewardship of land, could be the options.
Although some studies have identified the cost-effectiveness of NbS to climate change mitigation, most of them paid attention to global and national level and the scale of urban agglomeration has seldom analyzed. Furthermore, few studies have established the local marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for GHG reductions based on NbS approaches.
The present research will embed the NbS in the supply-side based MAC model to incorporate land use and land change, energy consumption, industry structure, urbanization and scale of NbS in order to identify the optimal strategies for climate change mitigation. The Peral River Delta region will be the case study area. Forest, croplands, grasslands and wetlands will be focused to delineate the cost-effectiveness of NbS to GHG abatement.