21 JUL 2026 (TUE) 10:05 - 10:35

Quantifying nonlinear building energy responses to atmospheric humidity under climate change

Mr. MA Zhongji    

( Supervisor: Prof Yuyu Zhou )

Abstract:

As climate change and rapid urbanization intensify pressures on urban energy systems, accurately identifying the climatic drivers of building energy demand has become increasingly important. Building energy assessments typically focus on dry-bulb temperature, yet absolute humidity imposes latent cooling loads that may become increasingly important under climate change. This gap may lead to an underestimation of energy risks in humid and rapidly urbanizing regions. Existing studies have begun to consider humidity effects, but they are often limited to single cities, selected building types, or combined heat-humidity indices that cannot isolate the independent role of atmospheric humidity. Moreover, the potential nonlinear response of building energy use to increasing humidity and its interaction with recent atmospheric moistening remain insufficiently quantified.

As a consequence, we develop a physics-based simulation framework to quantify the independent effect of absolute humidity on building energy use across cities in China. Based on building prototype modelling and energy-use simulations, the study first examines how different building prototypes and climate zones respond to controlled humidity perturbations, thereby characterizing their theoretical vulnerability boundaries under simulated humidity stress. It then maps observed historical moistening trends onto the simulated energy-humidity response curves to evaluate the building energy pressure that has already emerged from recent atmospheric humidity changes. In this way, the framework connects theoretical energy vulnerability of buildings with actual climate-driven energy pressure.

This study is expected to advance the understanding of humidity as an independent climate risk factor for urban energy systems under climate change. The results can help climate-adaptive building design, regional HVAC strategies, urban energy planning and grid resilience assessment, especially in regions where latent cooling demand may become an increasingly important constraint.