17 JUN 2026 (WED) 15:35 - 16:05

Institutional and Monitoring Readiness for Pre-Revenue Blue Carbon Finance in Restored Mangrove Aquaculture Ponds in Indonesia

Mr. Nicholas JAMISON    

( Supervisor: Prof Jimmy Li)

Abstract:

Blue carbon finance is increasingly transforming mangrove restoration from a conservation activity into a potential climate-finance asset. In Indonesia, where many restoration initiatives are focused on abandoned or degraded aquaculture ponds, this shift is especially significant. Long before carbon credits are issued or revenues are distributed, local institutions are already being assembled: committees are formed, monitoring duties are allocated, financial controls are negotiated, external partnerships are established and expectations about future benefits begin to take shape. This pre-revenue phase is therefore not simply preparatory. It is a formative institutional moment in which the rules governing future blue carbon value may become embedded. 

This study examines the institutional readiness of restored mangrove aquaculture pond systems in Indonesia for potential blue carbon finance. Institutional readiness is understood as a finance-facing dimension of governance: the extent to which local rules, roles, safeguards and monitoring arrangements are prepared to support credible, equitable and transparent engagement with blue carbon mechanisms. Using the Institutional Analysis and Development framework, the research maps rules-in-use across authority structures, participation mechanisms, monitoring arrangements, financial management, benefit allocation, conflict resolution and external partnerships. Rather than treating governance as a direct causal predictor of ecological outcomes, the study asks whether the institutional and ecological foundations required for future blue carbon finance are already in place before finance becomes formalised. 

The research adopts a qualitative-dominant mixed-methods comparative design across four mangrove aquaculture pond sites currently undergoing restoration in Indonesia: two NGO-facilitated Ecological Mangrove Restoration initiatives and two CSR-linked restoration projects. All four sites are analysed using the same institutional diagnostic framework and ecological baseline assessment to enable structured comparison across restoration models. Ecological fieldwork supports the readiness assessment through two compliance-sensitive indicators — fresh stump density and seedling recruitment — as evidence of recent disturbance. Species composition, diameter at breast height, above-ground biomass proxies and soil organic carbon are treated as contextual baseline indicators relevant to future monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) preparedness. 

The study develops a structured institutional readiness framework for pre-revenue blue carbon initiatives. By focusing on governance conditions before finance is introduced, it assesses whether community