17 JUN 2026 (WED) 14:35 - 15:05

Net-zero SDG pathways narrow supply-side gaps but widen end-use pressures across China’s provinces

Mr. CHEN Ningkang    

( Supervisor: Prof Zhenci Xu )

Abstract:

Net-zero pathways are usually judged by aggregate emissions, but a national carbon constraint also redistributes Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) benefits and transition pressure across regions. Here we test whether China’s 2060 net-zero transition delivers larger SDG gains to provinces facing greater baseline pressure. Using GCAM-China outputs for 31 provinces, we compare a reference pathway, a national net-zero pathway, single decarbonization levers and integrated packages across climate, clean-energy, water, transport and affordability indicators. The results show that even with the same climate ambition, pathway choice reshapes provincial SDG outcomes by reallocating benefits and pressures. The national CO2 constraint worked best for outcomes linked to emissions, electricity supply and water withdrawals. Higher-pressure provinces in CO2, non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHG), power structure and water withdrawals received larger SDG gains, narrowing regional gaps by up to 4.7-fold. But as for end-use transition and affordability, transport electrification and fuel-price outcomes improved least in several high-pressure provinces, widening gaps by up to 5.6-fold. Full integrated package is not the best pathway because broader SDG gains come with higher affordability regret. Place-based end-use and affordability policies are therefore needed alongside national net-zero policy. 

keywords: Net-zero transition; Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); Inequality; Pathway