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Global Resilience and Sustainability of Water Resources in the Context of Cropping Expansion and Intensification
Ms ZHU Lilan
( Supervisor: Prof Peng Zhu )
Abstract:
Climate change and its impacts on water resources and agricultural production are global challenges of the 21st century. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased evaporation rates have led to more frequent, intense, and prolonged droughts with expanding impacts. Water resources' resilience, especially after droughts, is crucial for stabilizing agricultural yields and ensuring sustainable water management. However, the patterns of global groundwater resilience and their influencing factors remain largely unknown.
The agricultural sector is the primary consumer of global freshwater resources, accounting for 70-90% of total consumption, and over 90% in some arid regions. Agricultural water use affects the water supply and demand balance, further impacting future sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to adjust agricultural structures and planting patterns to reduce water use in agriculture, especially in the context of water scarcity.
Additionally, the impact of agricultural activities on the hydrological cycle is increasingly recognized. Agricultural expansion or intensification can lead to decreased local runoff and increased local evaporation. Through the evaporation cycle, atmospheric feedback and transport can recycle some of the increased runoff back to the downwind land surface, potentially boosting downwind runoff. Thus, understanding how agricultural activities affect runoff presents a significant scientific challenge. While some small-scale river basin studies exist, no research has quantified the global effects of agricultural expansion and intensification on runoff, specifically the local runoff reduction and the increased downwind runoff.
This proposal will explore the interconnections between agriculture and water resources on a global scale through three interrelated studies using a range of remote sensing and reanalysis data. The first study will focus on the issue of groundwater drought, particularly the resilience of groundwater in agricultural areas. Recovery time after drought will be used as a resilience indicator. It aims to assess global recovery patterns, identify influencing factors, and understand the impacts of climate change and human activities on recovery times. The second study will examine the effects of agricultural expansion and intensification on runoff. Changes in local and downwind evapotranspiration and runoff due to expansion and intensification will be quantified. The third study will explore strategies for optimizing agricultural distribution, including geographic distribution of crop planting and adjustments in crop rotation patterns to reduce water use. The goal is to minimize agricultural water consumption while ensuring no increase in environmental burdens (fertilizers, pesticides, greenhouse gas emissions, etc.) and no reduction in yields or farmer income.
Here, these 3 studies will assess the resilience of agricultural areas facing water scarcity; reveal the potential impacts of agricultural activities on water resource distribution and availability, and provide a scientific basis for understanding and predicting the long-term effects of agricultural expansion on water resources. The proposed crop redistribution strategies will offer theoretical support for policymakers and agricultural managers, as well as practical solutions for achieving sustainable agricultural development.
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