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13 JUN 2024 (THU) 14:35-15:05

Analyzing Resource Management for China's Food Security: A System Dynamics-Based Integrated Model


Miss LIAO Rou

(Supervisor: Prof Peter K. Koh)


Abstract:

Recently there has been an increasing global concern on food security, as the access to food for millions worldwide has been impeded by climate change, population growth, resource pressures, and economic inequality. As one of the largest developing countries, the priority of FS in China is even more urgent owning to the contradiction between the rising demands and limited land resources and agricultural production, as well as the unbalanced supply systems. To tackle such a crisis, it is necessary to implement a sustainable food system along with reliable policies. This research explores the complex relationships between resource management, sustainable food procedures, and human behavior in China’s FS, and the diverse dynamics of FS are examined through case studies.

 

Specifically, this research builds a comprehensive Sustainable Food Economic Behavior (SFEB) Model, based and combined on system dynamics (SD), computable general equilibrium modeling (CGE), and planned behavior theory (TPB). The findings obtained by this analytical framework show the complicated linkages between human behavior, food production, food waste, economic policy, and environmental sustainability. The integrated modeling method combines the macroscopic perspective of CGE with the individual perspective of TPB through the SD simulation. The first version of the SFEB model is presented in the probation, which is divided into six distinct sections: the economy, water demand and supply, food production, population, land use, and climate. This work enhances the SFEB model by enabling data in yearly time phases using a global–local-global (GLG) analysis.  This provides all three levels of the model: a behavioral analysis for people (TPB), a regional analysis particularly aimed at China, and a global scale analysis (CGE). Additionally, the model details the complex interactions among economic activity, energy dynamics, and environmental consequences when paired with predictions of individual behavior.

 

The value of feedback is emphasized by simulating various policy scenarios. These simulations show the potential effects of different works on the future behavior of China's food system. This SFEB model improves scientific understanding and socioeconomic policy development methods by providing detailed explanations of social structures and examining choices for policy, which can lead the way to sustainable development, benefit policy making and pave the way for further research on sustainable food development.

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